The AI Bubble: A Critical Look Beyond the Hype
There’s a narrative being pushed by tech executives that AI is an unstoppable force, destined to reshape our world, replace jobs, and maybe even achieve superintelligence. But what if this story is more about selling a vision than predicting the future? Personally, I think Cory Doctorow’s take on this is both refreshing and urgently needed. In his new book, The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI, Doctorow argues that AI isn’t an inevitability—it’s a financial bubble, and like all bubbles, it’s bound to burst.
The Techno-Politics of AI: Who Benefits, Who Suffers?
One thing that immediately stands out is Doctorow’s emphasis on techno-politics—the idea that technology isn’t neutral. It’s shaped by power structures and often serves those who control it. Take the example of Robert Moses’ overpasses in New York City, designed to prevent Black people from accessing public beaches. The overpass itself isn’t racist, but its design and implementation were tools of segregation. AI, Doctorow argues, is no different. It’s not inherently revolutionary; it’s a tool that can be wielded for good or ill, depending on who’s in control.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how Doctorow connects this to the current AI narrative. Tech companies aren’t just selling AI as a tool—they’re selling it as an inevitability, a force that will replace human labor and drive profits. But as Doctorow points out, this isn’t a technological imperative; it’s a political and economic choice. Automation can be driven by labor to improve quality, or by capital to cut costs. The latter is what we’re seeing today, and it’s not inevitable—it’s a result of decades of lax competition enforcement and the rise of monopolies.
The Myth of AI’s Inevitability
In my opinion, one of the most compelling points Doctorow makes is the distinction between AI’s capabilities and the hype surrounding it. AI, as it exists today, is essentially a word-guessing program. It can predict patterns based on data, but it doesn’t understand anything. Your spouse can understand your emotions and intentions; a chatbot can’t. Yet, tech companies are selling AI as if it’s on the verge of superintelligence. This, Doctorow argues, is impossible—and it’s also a self-serving narrative.
What many people don’t realize is that the fear of AI replacing jobs isn’t just about technology; it’s about power. When bosses replace workers with AI, it’s often not because the AI can do the job better, but because they can cut costs and blame the technology for mistakes. This narrative benefits big tech by driving investment and justifying layoffs. It’s a bubble fueled by fear and misinformation, and it’s not sustainable.
Life After the AI Bubble Bursts
If you take a step back and think about it, the AI bubble isn’t just about overvalued companies—it’s about misplaced priorities. Doctorow argues that when the bubble bursts, we’ll be left with the technology itself, which can be repurposed and optimized. The hardware will be cheap, and the open-source software will be available for anyone to improve. This is what happened after the dot-com bubble: the infrastructure remained, and innovators built Web 2.0 on top of it.
A detail that I find especially interesting is Doctorow’s comparison of AI to Tamagotchis. AI, he says, isn’t an essential part of our lives—it’s a novelty. If Google’s AI services disappeared tomorrow, most of us wouldn’t notice. But if Office 365 went down, society would grind to a halt. This perspective is crucial because it reminds us that AI isn’t the backbone of our digital lives; it’s just one tool among many.
The Joy of the Internet: Beyond Enshittification
Doctorow coined the term enshittification to describe how platforms degrade over time as they prioritize profit over user experience. But even in this landscape, he finds joy. From Mastodon’s Explore feed to quirky podcasts like No Gods No Mayors, the internet is still full of weird, wonderful communities. What this really suggests is that the problem isn’t the internet itself—it’s how it’s being controlled and monetized.
Writing, Pain, and the Hammock
On a personal note, Doctorow’s writing routine is as fascinating as his ideas. He writes in a hammock, early in the morning, surrounded by nature. Why? Because of chronic pain. It’s a reminder that creativity often thrives in unconventional spaces. This raises a deeper question: how much of our productivity and innovation is constrained by the physical and economic structures we’ve built?
Conclusion: The Future Is Not Set in Stone
Doctorow’s message is clear: the future of AI isn’t inevitable, and it’s not being written by tech executives. It’s up to us. The AI bubble will burst, and when it does, we’ll have a choice: do we let austerity and monopolies dominate, or do we build something better? Personally, I think the latter is not only possible but necessary. The technology will still be there, waiting to be repurposed and optimized. The question is, who will control it—and for whose benefit?
